You might expect that the crunch of a recession would lead people to put off having kids. It sounds obvious, and conventional wisdom would be on your side. But you’d be wrong.
The truth is that people begin to conceive fewer children before major economic contractions. That relationship is counterintuitive, yet it is exactly what theSocionomics Institute’s Robert Prechter found 19 years ago when he charted data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and Dow Jones & Co. going back to 1908.
Prechter’s observations that conceptions tended to rise and fall with the stock market preceded a working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research this week which confirms that declines in conceptions preceded the three most recent U.S. recessions.
Prechter’s findings, originally published in 1999, stated “trends in social mood regulate trends in social behavior, including those in conceptions, the stock market and economic growth. A positive mood prompts feelings of friskiness, daring and confidence, inspiring people in the aggregate to have more children, to send stock prices higher and to become more productive economically. A negative mood prompts feelings of somberness, defensiveness and fear, inspiring people in the aggregate to have fewer children, to send stock prices lower and to become less productive economically. Because people generally can express their friskiness in their trading accounts and in bed sooner than they can expand or contract business, trends in stocks and conceptions tend to lead trends in the economy.”
Socionomics Director of Research Matt Lampert says “we find ourselves in a similar situation today. Births have declined as stocks have soared and the economy has grown. Millennials are delaying marriage and having fewer children. If history is any guide, the economy may soon be the entity having contractions.”
The truth is that people begin to conceive fewer children before major economic contractions. That relationship is counterintuitive, yet it is exactly what theSocionomics Institute’s Robert Prechter found 19 years ago when he charted data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and Dow Jones & Co. going back to 1908.
Prechter’s observations that conceptions tended to rise and fall with the stock market preceded a working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research this week which confirms that declines in conceptions preceded the three most recent U.S. recessions.
Prechter’s findings, originally published in 1999, stated “trends in social mood regulate trends in social behavior, including those in conceptions, the stock market and economic growth. A positive mood prompts feelings of friskiness, daring and confidence, inspiring people in the aggregate to have more children, to send stock prices higher and to become more productive economically. A negative mood prompts feelings of somberness, defensiveness and fear, inspiring people in the aggregate to have fewer children, to send stock prices lower and to become less productive economically. Because people generally can express their friskiness in their trading accounts and in bed sooner than they can expand or contract business, trends in stocks and conceptions tend to lead trends in the economy.”
Socionomics Director of Research Matt Lampert says “we find ourselves in a similar situation today. Births have declined as stocks have soared and the economy has grown. Millennials are delaying marriage and having fewer children. If history is any guide, the economy may soon be the entity having contractions.”
About Matt Lampert
Matt Lampert is the director of research at the Socionomics Institute, a think tank that uses data on social mood to understand and anticipate social trends. He’s a contributing author to Socionomic Causality in Politics, an Amazon No. 1 bestseller in behavioral psychology.
Are you putting of children because of a conflict in your relationship? Learn more about finding help working through those conflicts: https://www.regain.us/ advice/marriage/ confidentiality-should-i-seek- marriage-counseling-near-me/
Are you putting of children because of a conflict in your relationship? Learn more about finding help working through those conflicts: https://www.regain.us/ advice/marriage/ confidentiality-should-i-seek- marriage-counseling-near-me/
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